Week 30 Predictions

Week 30 predictions and results are in: my model predicted 8/10¬†¬†games correctly with an asterisk on Crystal Palace’s road win over Stoke City because the model predicted 35% win probability for both teams.

The two errors were West Ham’s win over Sunderland, where the model predicted a 43% likelihood of a draw, although West Ham winning was the second most likely result at 33%. An acceptable error.

The bigger error was missing Manchester United’s road win over Liverpool, which my model had as the least likely outcome at 19%. Not sure what went wrong there, although it largely agreed with the betting lines on the game. so I’m not the only one who got it wrong.

Overall a 9/11 success rate in a system with three outcomes is strong. There might need to be some tweaks, but overall a good week.

GameHome Team Win %Draw %Visiting Team Win %Actual OutcomeCorrect Prediction
Manchester City vs. West Bromwich Albion60%28%11%Man City 3 - WBA 1Yes
Stoke City vs. Crystal Palace35%28%35%Stoke City 1 - Crystal Palace 2Yes*
Tottenham vs. Leicester City75%12%12%Tottenham 4 - Leicester City 3Yes
Southampton vs. Burnley FC75%6%18%Southampton 2 - Burnley 0Yes
Aston Villa v. Swansea City26%12%61%Aston Villa 0 - Swansea City 1Yes
Newcastle vs. Arsenal11%24%64%Newcastle United 1 - Arsenal 2Yes
West Ham United vs. Sunderland33%43%22%West Ham 1 - Sunderland 0No*
Liverpool vs. Manchester United32%49%19%Liverpool 1 - Manchester United 2No*
Hull City vs. Chelsea70%27%3%Hull City 2 - Chelsea 3Yes
Queens Park Rangers vs. Everton23%34%42%QPR 1 - Everton 2Yes