Here are the model’s predictions for Week 31. The marquee game this weekend is probably Arsenal v. Liverpool at the Emirates, and I’ve got Arsenal as a 47% favorite to win, with Liverpool 33% to win, and 20% chance of a draw. This one feels about right to me, but I’ve missed two Liverpool results in a row so the smart contrarian money might be on a draw.
The most surprising prediction is Manchester United only being 33% to beat Aston Villa at Old Trafford, with a 49% likelihood of a draw. My intuition tells me Man U should be a significant favorite here, although I’m not surprised by Aston Villa only having an 18% chance to win.
Finally, in the relegation battle, we’ll start with Leicester City v. West Ham United. Leicester having a 13% chance to win is pretty low, but we’re getting toward must-win territory if they want to have any hope of staying in the league next year. Queen’s Park Rangers have a strong chance (74%) to pick up at least a point, and is surprisingly a small favorite against West Brom away, and Burnley is in way over their heads (4% to win) at home against Tottenham. Could be a big week for QPR, as none of the rest of the teams in the lower end of the table seem to have much of a chance of taking anything from the matches this weekend.
Should be an interesting week, and some non-intuitive predictions so I’ll be interested to see how the model fares against my instinct.
|Game||Home Team Win %||Draw %||Visiting Team Win %||Actual Outcome||Correct Prediction|
|Arsenal v. Liverpool||47%||20%||33%||Arsenal 4 - Liverpool 1||Yes|
|Swansea City v. Hull City||42%||22%||35%||Swansea 3 - Hull City 1||Yes|
|West Bromwich Albion v. Queens Park Rangers||25%||45%||29%||West Brom 1 - QPR 4||No (2nd most likely)|
|Leicester City vs. West Ham United||13%||14%||73%||Leicester City 1 - West Ham 2||No (3rd most likely)|
|Manchester United v. Aston Villa||33%||49%||18%||Man United 3 - Aston Villa 1||No (2nd most likely)|
|Everton v. Southampton||8%||38%||54%||Everton 1 - Southampton 0||No (3rd most likely)|
|Chelsea v. Stoke City||62%||25%||13%||Chelsea 2 - Stoke City 1||Yes|
|Burnley FC vs. Tottenham||4%||32%||65%||Burnley 0 - Tottenham 0||No (2nd most likely)|
|Sunderland vs. Newcastle||13%||50%||36%||Sunderland 1 - Newcastle 0||No (3rd most likely|
|Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City||12%||31%||57%||Crystal Palace 2 - Man City 1||No (3rd most likely)|