Last week I posted my first set of comparisons between MOTSON (my predictive model calculated with pre-season data) and my TAM model (the model calculated using in-season results). I wanted to follow it up every week, so here are this week’s predictions and results:

Game | MOTSON | TAM | Actual |
---|---|---|---|

Norwich v. Liverpool | Liverpool | Draw | Liverpool |

Manchester United v. Southampton | Manchester United | Manchester United | Southampton |

Leicester City v. Stoke City | Leicester City | Leicester City | Leicester City |

Watford v. Newcastle | Newcastle United | Watford | Watford |

Crystal Palace v. Tottenham Hotspur | Palace/Draw (even) | Tottenham Hotspur | Tottenham Hotspur |

Sunderland v. Bournemouth | Draw | Bournemouth | Draw |

West Brom v. Aston Villa | Draw | West Brom | Draw |

West Ham United v. Manchester City | Draw | Draw | Draw |

Everton v. Swansea City | Everton | Everton | Swansea |

Arsenal v. Chelsea | Arsenal | Arsenal | Chelsea |

MOTSON got 5/10 games correct, predicting correct outcomes in the following games:^{1}

- Norwich v. Liverpool
- Leicester v. Stoke
- Sunderland v. Bournemouth
- West Brom v. Villa
- West Ham v. Man City

The TAM model only got 3/10 correct, predicting correct outcomes in:

- Leicester v. Stoke
- Watford v. Newcastle
- Palace v. Spurs

I’m less than thrilled with 3/10, which is less than the 5/10 last week. Overall MOTSON is winning the prediction competition with 11 correct picks to 8 for the in-season form model. Two of the three TAM correct picks were ones MOTSON got wrong: Watford v. Newcastle and Palace v. Spurs. MOTSON has consistently underestimated Watford, so a home win from them isn’t entirely surprising. I’m not sure why MOTSON didn’t like Spurs more away against Palace – away fixtures are generally tough, but even based on last year’s form I would have thought Spurs would have fared better (although as I remember it their coefficient wasn’t *that* much above the mid-table pack at home last year so that may be what it’s thinking).

Quick note on the TAM’s Serie A predictions – it fared much better here, picking 5/10 correct. The 5 correct predictions were:

- Juventus over Roma
- Napoli over Sampdoria
- Empoli drew Milan (bah)
- Verona drew Genoa
- Lazio over Chievo

The TAM is about as simple of an in-season model as one can build, but it’s interesting to see its comparisons vs. a model that knows nothing about 2015-2016, and how the (more sophisticated) pre-season model seems to be doing better so far.

- A quick note: Adding up the predicted probabilities for the most likely category had MOTSON getting 5.6 games correct this weekend, so predictions were pretty consistent with results. ↩