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EPL: Week 33 Predictions

Here are my Week 33 predictions.  The big game this weekend is Chelsea v. Manchester United. The model actually has what seems like a reasonable prediction here, with Chelsea a 46% favorite at home, 27% to draw and 27% for Manchester United.

On the other end of the table, all of the relegation teams have a reasonable chance of at least getting a point, while Burnley has the strongest predicted chance of getting the three points at Everton. Everton has come on strong lately, and they’re a 45% favorite, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Burnley got something out of this match at all. This could be a key week in determining the relegation spots, as with all the teams so close even a point could be huge.

GameHome Team Win %Draw %Visiting Team Win %Actual OutcomeCorrect Prediction
Stoke City v. Southampton25%26%49%Stoke City 2 - Southampton 1No (3rd most likely)
Leicester City v. Swansea City12%14%73%Leicester City 2 - Swansea 0 No (3rd most likely)
Everton v. Burnley45%24%30%Everton 1 - Burnley 0Yes
Crystal Palace v. West Brom31%36%32%Crystal Palace 0 - West Brom 2No (2nd most likely)*
Chelsea v. Manchester United46%27%27%Chelsea 1 - Manchester United 0Yes
Manchester City v. West Ham56%29%14%Manchester City 2 - West Ham 0Yes
Newcastle v. Tottenham14%26%59%Newcastle 1 - Tottenham 3Yes
Hull City v. Liverpool6%35%58%
Arsenal v. Sunderland62%18%19%Postponed until May 20 -

Will Manchester City Keep their Champions League Place?

With the news that Manuel Pellegrini will be fired if Manchester City fails to earn a Champions League place this season (if not sooner), I wanted to look and see what the odds were of that actually happening.

The Method: I calculated the predicted probabilities for each of the top 8 teams’ remaining games, and then simulated 10,000 seasons based on those probabilities.  I added the predicted points for each game to the teams’ current totals, then ranked the teams based on those totals.  Finally, I calculated the proportion of times each team ended in each position 1, and then added up the probability of finishing in each of the top 4 spots to calculate the likelihood of finishing in the Champions League positions. 2.

As of today, my simulations are showing Manchester City has an 86% of keeping a top 4 spot (assuming they win the tiebreaker). However, if they fail to defeat West Ham where they are a 56% favorite, their likelihood drops to 73%. And more troubling, if they lose on the road to a desperate QPR team where they are a 62% favorite, their likelihood drops below 50%.

Man City Top $

The good news is that if Manchester City can win the next two games, they’re pretty much guaranteed a Top 4 spots. The results of the simulation are here:

Man City Top 4 Good

However, City fans shouldn’t panic if they lose the next game against West Ham. If they win a very winnable game against QPR week 34 they’ll have an over 80% chance to keep a Champions League spot.

Man City Top 4 Middle

All of this depends on other results, but the next two games are crucial for Manchester City. They’ll need to shake off this bad form, especially because the next two games are against relative minnows who Champions League caliber teams should have no problems defeating. Two big weeks coming up for Pellegrini if he wants to have any hope of surviving through the season.

  1. Good news Chelsea fans, you have a 98% chance of winning the league at this point
  2. Because my simulator doesn’t calculate final scores, I counted a tie for 4th place as a Champions League place for all the teams