This was a big week for movement in the Champions League spots: Arsenal’s win bumped them from a 71% chance to qualifying for UEFA’s top competition to a 91%, while Spurs were the biggest loser of the week, dropping from a 17% chance to only 7%.
Southampton had a good week as well, moving up 1% point but gaining about a 26% chance to end up with the same number of league points as Manchester City. City currently has a significantly higher goal differential, but if they lose enough games to let Southampton catch up they could also lose that tie-breaker so that has to be a concern for fans of the Citizens.
I have Liverpool as a decent favorite tomorrow, so it will be interesting to see what happens to their chances after tomorrow’s game. It has to be a must-win for Liverpool if they want to have any realistic chance of making the top 4, and home against Newcastle is certainly a winnable game. The plot includes probabilities before this weekend’s fixtures at the top, and probabilities after Sunday’s results at the bottom.