Everton: Don’t Fire Roberto Martinez

Another big story this season is Everton’s poor start to the season (5 points in 4 games) and early reports are that Roberto Martinez might be the first manager on the chopping block. But are they really underachieving?

Deviation 0830

This week’s deviation chart shows that they’re actually slightly over-achieving compared to expectations. They’ve earned 5 points, but their expected value at this point is only 4.24, meaning they’re about a point over where they should be at this time. This means two things:

  1. Everton  isn’t as good as their fifth place finish two years ago.
  2. They’re doing slightly better than they should be, and if you’re going to draw any conclusion from that it would be that Roberto Martinez has gotten slightly more out of the team than he should have been able to.1

I’m sure Roberto Martinez is proud of the early season results2, and my analysis shows that he has at least some right to be. Everton needs to give him more time because they’re performing as they should with the players they have.

  1. As an American, another explanation would be that Tim Howard’s heroics against Spurs earned them a point they wouldn’t have otherwise earned. Goalkeepers aren’t in my model unfortunately, so that’s a valid alternative hypothesis
  2. ESPNFC Podcast joke for Dan Mason fans

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