I’ve finished up my preliminary spreadsheets for La Liga, so I thought I’d post the predictions here as well. So far the model is doing ok, although Barcelona’s draw at Malaga was a big miss.
I’ll admit to not knowing enough about Spanish soccer to comment much on the model’s predictions, but I did a quick check to see how things look at the top of the table and it seems to predict pretty well. I’ll update the results as the weekend goes on, and I’m hoping to add Serie A and the Bundesliga soon. Serie A might be a little painful because I’m not sure I’m ready to relive Milan’s season just yet, even in spreadsheet form.
|Game||Home Team Win %||Draw %||Visiting Team Win %||Actual Outcome||Correct Prediction|
|Sevilla v. Barcelona||38%||8%||54%||Sevilla 2 - Barcelona 2||No (3rd most likely)|
|Almeria v. Granada||46%||33%||20%||Almeria 3 - Granada 0||Yes|
|Celta Vigo v. Rayo Vallecano||32%||28%||40%||Celta Vigo 6 - Rayo 1||No (2nd most likely)|
|Real Madrid v. Eibar||91%||4%||5%||Real Madrid 3 - Eibar 0||Yes|
|Malaga v. Atletico Madrid||29%||14%||57%||Malaga 2 - Atletico 2||No (3rd most likely)|
|Getafe CF v. Villareal||35%||15%||50%||Getafe 1 - Villareal 1||No (3rd most likely)|
|Cordoba v. Elche||50%||32%||17%||Elche 2 - Cordoba 0||No (3rd most likely)|
|Real Sociedad v. Deportivo La Coruna||55%||32%||13%||Real Sociedad 2 - Deportivo 2||No (2nd most likely)|
|Espanyol v. Athletic Bilbao||64%||8%||27%||Espanyol 1 - Athletic 0||Yes|
|Valencia v. Levante||77%||20%||3%||Valencia 3 - Levante 0||Yes|