La Liga Week 31 Predictions

I’ve finished up my preliminary spreadsheets for La Liga, so I thought I’d post the predictions here as well. So far the model is doing ok, although Barcelona’s draw at Malaga was a big miss.

I’ll admit to not knowing enough about Spanish soccer to comment much on the model’s predictions, but I did a quick check to see how things look at the top of the table and it seems to predict pretty well.  I’ll update the results as the weekend goes on, and I’m hoping to add Serie A and the Bundesliga soon. Serie A might be a little painful because I’m not sure I’m ready to relive Milan’s season just yet, even in spreadsheet form.

GameHome Team Win %Draw %Visiting Team Win %Actual OutcomeCorrect Prediction
Sevilla v. Barcelona38%8%54%Sevilla 2 - Barcelona 2No (3rd most likely)
Almeria v. Granada
46%33%20%Almeria 3 - Granada 0Yes
Celta Vigo v. Rayo Vallecano32%28%40%Celta Vigo 6 - Rayo 1No (2nd most likely)
Real Madrid v. Eibar91%4%5%Real Madrid 3 - Eibar 0Yes
Malaga v. Atletico Madrid29%14%57%Malaga 2 - Atletico 2No (3rd most likely)
Getafe CF v. Villareal35%15%50%Getafe 1 - Villareal 1No (3rd most likely)
Cordoba v. Elche50%32%17%Elche 2 - Cordoba 0No (3rd most likely)
Real Sociedad v. Deportivo La Coruna55%32%13%Real Sociedad 2 - Deportivo 2No (2nd most likely)
Espanyol v. Athletic Bilbao64%8%27%Espanyol 1 - Athletic 0Yes
Valencia v. Levante77%20%3%Valencia 3 - Levante 0Yes

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