Week 23 EPL Model Comparisons (Plus Bonus Serie A Diagnostics)

Last week I posted my first set of comparisons between MOTSON (my predictive model calculated with pre-season data) and my TAM model (the model calculated using in-season results). I wanted to follow it up every week, so here are this week’s predictions and results:

GameMOTSONTAMActual
Norwich v. LiverpoolLiverpoolDrawLiverpool
Manchester United v. SouthamptonManchester UnitedManchester UnitedSouthampton
Leicester City v. Stoke CityLeicester CityLeicester CityLeicester City
Watford v. NewcastleNewcastle UnitedWatfordWatford
Crystal Palace v. Tottenham HotspurPalace/Draw (even)Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur
Sunderland v. BournemouthDrawBournemouthDraw
West Brom v. Aston VillaDrawWest BromDraw
West Ham United v. Manchester CityDrawDrawDraw
Everton v. Swansea CityEvertonEvertonSwansea
Arsenal v. ChelseaArsenalArsenalChelsea

MOTSON got 5/10 games correct, predicting correct outcomes in the following games:1

  • Norwich v. Liverpool
  • Leicester v. Stoke
  • Sunderland v. Bournemouth
  • West Brom v. Villa
  • West Ham v. Man City

The TAM model only got 3/10 correct, predicting correct outcomes in:

  • Leicester v. Stoke
  • Watford v. Newcastle
  • Palace v. Spurs

I’m less than thrilled with 3/10, which is less than the 5/10 last week. Overall MOTSON is winning the prediction competition with 11 correct picks to 8 for the in-season form model. Two of the three TAM correct picks were ones MOTSON got wrong: Watford v. Newcastle and Palace v. Spurs. MOTSON has consistently underestimated Watford, so a home win from them isn’t entirely surprising. I’m not sure why MOTSON didn’t like Spurs more away against Palace – away fixtures are generally tough, but even based on last year’s form I would have thought Spurs would have fared better (although as I remember it their coefficient wasn’t *that* much above the mid-table pack at home last year so that may be what it’s thinking).

Quick note on the TAM’s Serie A predictions – it fared much better here, picking 5/10 correct. The 5 correct predictions were:

  • Juventus over Roma
  • Napoli over Sampdoria
  • Empoli drew Milan (bah)
  • Verona drew Genoa
  • Lazio over Chievo

The TAM is about as simple of an in-season model as one can build, but it’s interesting to see its comparisons vs. a model that knows nothing about 2015-2016, and how the (more sophisticated) pre-season model seems to be doing better so far.

  1. A quick note: Adding up the predicted probabilities for the most likely category had MOTSON getting 5.6 games correct this weekend, so predictions were pretty consistent with results.

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