Week 25 EPL Model Comparisons

So this is the fourth week of my in-season results based model (TAM), and I wanted to continue comparing its performance to MOTSON’s. My goal is, with enough data, to learn as much as I can about the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches and maybe how they can compliment each other and how I can improve my predictions for next season. You can see last week’s post here, and I’ll be updating every week. Below is a table with each model’s modal category and the actual result.

GameMOTSON (Pre-Season)TAM (In-Season)Actual Result
Stoke City v. EvertonStokeDrawEverton
Manchester City v. Leicester CityMan CityMan CityLeicester City
Southampton v. West Ham UnitedSouthamptonDrawSouthampton
Bournemouth v. ArsenalArsenalArsenalArsenal
Chelsea v. Manchester UnitedChelseaManchester UnitedDraw
Newcastle v. West BromDrawDrawNewcastle
Tottenham Hotspur v. WatfordTottenhamTottenhamTottenham
Aston Villa v. Norwich CityAston VillaDrawAston Villa
Liverpool v. SunderlandLiverpoolLiverpoolDraw
Swansea City v. Crystal PalaceSwanseaDrawDraw

Not a great week for either model, and MOTSON wins again with a meager 4-3 (22-18 overall). Not surprising after such a hot week last week, but what can we learn. First is that both MOTSON and the TAM picked Man City over Leicester, which is a testament to how strongly Leicester is over-performing. Even using this season’s results, the models were wrong as Leicester still pulled out what turned out to be a fairly comfortable victory over Manchester City. We’re witnessing something special here, and no model seems to be able to capture exactly how special.

As part of Southampton’s regression to the mean, MOTSON picked that game correctly while the TAM struggled with it, and MOTSON correctly liked Aston Villa to win at home against Norwich City. The TAM on the other hand picked the Swansea v. Crystal Palace draw correctly.

I’m not seeing any patterns emerging (other than over-valuing Chelsea), but if anyone has any hypotheses on ways the TAM outperforms MOTSON I’d appreciate you sharing them with me on Twitter (@Soccermetric). Check back soon for my Serie A and Bundesliga prediction diagnostics – not as good results for the TAM  in those leagues as last week either.

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