The week 32 predictions are done, and I have a few thoughts.
First, after a so-so performance last week I revised the model a little bit to include both previous results and a few covariates (see my previous post on the topic for more details). This performs better in all the diagnostic tests, so hopefully I’ve added a little predictive accuracy to the model.
Second, there are two particularly…interesting predictions this week. The model is predicting Chelsea as almost a 100% favorite to win on the road against QPR this weekend. They’re obviously a huge favorite, but I honestly don’t know if Chelsea would be a 99% favorite against a mid-table team in the Championship, let alone a Premier League team fighting for its life. The other one is Manchester City being a favorite against Manchester United at Old Trafford. I think my model consistently underestimates Man United because they lost at least a few games they should have won early in the season. I tried a specification where I added recent form into the model, but it didn’t perform as well as the GF/GA variable so I took it out. If I had to guess, it probably helped predict Manchester United results a little more accuracy though. As a City fan, I have to think Man United is the favorite this weekend, especially since Man U seems to have figured things out. Vincent Kompany and (to a MUCH lesser extent) Wilfried Bony being out make it a tougher challenge, but the model doesn’t know that.
Nothing else looks too out of the norm, so we’ll see how it does this weekend!
|Game||Home Team Win %||Draw %||Visiting Team Win %||Actual Outcome||Correct Prediction|
|Swansea City v. Everton||46%||22%||31%||Swansea 1 - Everton 1||No (3rd most likely)|
|West Ham v. Stoke City||33%||43%||23%||West Ham 1 - Stoke City 1||Yes|
|Southampton v. Hull City||79%||6%||15%||Southampton 2 - Hull City 0||Yes|
|Burnley FC v. Arsenal||6%||34%||62%||Burnley 0 - Arsenal 1||Yes|
|Sunderland v. Crystal Palace||21%||52%||26%||Sunderland 1 - Crystal Palace 4||No (2nd most likely)|
|West Brom v. Leicester City||35%||44%||20%||West Brom 2 - Leicester City 3||No (3rd most likely)|
|Tottenham v. Aston Villa||69%||14%||16%||Tottenham 0 - Aston Villa 1||No (2nd more likely)|
|QPR v. Chelsea||1%||0%||99%||QPR 0 - Chelsea 1||Yes|
|Man United v. Man City||12%||44%||43%||Man United 4 - Man City 2||No (3rd most likely)|
|Liverpool v. Newcastle||69%||7%||24%||Liverpool 2 - Newcastle 0||Yes|