Week 32 Predictions

The week 32 predictions are done, and I have a few thoughts.

First, after a so-so performance last week I revised the model a little bit to include both previous results and a few covariates (see my previous post on the topic for more details). This performs better in all the diagnostic tests, so hopefully I’ve added a little predictive accuracy to the model.

Second, there are two particularly…interesting predictions this week. The model is predicting Chelsea as almost a 100% favorite to win on the road against QPR this weekend. They’re obviously a huge favorite, but I honestly don’t know if Chelsea would be a 99% favorite against a mid-table team in the Championship, let alone a Premier League team fighting for its life. The other one is Manchester City being a favorite against Manchester United at Old Trafford. I think my model consistently underestimates Man United because they lost at least a few games they should have won early in the season. I tried a specification where I added recent form into the model, but it didn’t perform as well as the GF/GA variable so I took it out. If I had to guess, it probably helped predict Manchester United results a little more accuracy though. As a City fan, I have to think Man United is the favorite this weekend, especially since Man U seems to have figured things out. Vincent Kompany and (to a MUCH lesser extent) Wilfried Bony being out make it a tougher challenge, but the model doesn’t know that.

Nothing else looks too out of the norm, so we’ll see how it does this weekend!

GameHome Team Win %Draw %Visiting Team Win %Actual OutcomeCorrect Prediction
Swansea City v. Everton46%22%31%Swansea 1 - Everton 1No (3rd most likely)
West Ham v. Stoke City33%43%23%West Ham 1 - Stoke City 1Yes
Southampton v. Hull City79%6%15%Southampton 2 - Hull City 0 Yes
Burnley FC v. Arsenal6%34%62%Burnley 0 - Arsenal 1Yes
Sunderland v. Crystal Palace21%52%26%Sunderland 1 - Crystal Palace 4No (2nd most likely)
West Brom v. Leicester City35%44%20%West Brom 2 - Leicester City 3No (3rd most likely)
Tottenham v. Aston Villa69%14%16%Tottenham 0 - Aston Villa 1No (2nd more likely)
QPR v. Chelsea1%0%99%QPR 0 - Chelsea 1Yes
Man United v. Man City12%44%43%Man United 4 - Man City 2No (3rd most likely)
Liverpool v. Newcastle69%7%24%Liverpool 2 - Newcastle 0Yes

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