Here are my Week 33 predictions. The big game this weekend is Chelsea v. Manchester United. The model actually has what seems like a reasonable prediction here, with Chelsea a 46% favorite at home, 27% to draw and 27% for Manchester United.
On the other end of the table, all of the relegation teams have a reasonable chance of at least getting a point, while Burnley has the strongest predicted chance of getting the three points at Everton. Everton has come on strong lately, and they’re a 45% favorite, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Burnley got something out of this match at all. This could be a key week in determining the relegation spots, as with all the teams so close even a point could be huge.
|Game||Home Team Win %||Draw %||Visiting Team Win %||Actual Outcome||Correct Prediction|
|Stoke City v. Southampton||25%||26%||49%||Stoke City 2 - Southampton 1||No (3rd most likely)|
|Leicester City v. Swansea City||12%||14%||73%||Leicester City 2 - Swansea 0||No (3rd most likely)|
|Everton v. Burnley||45%||24%||30%||Everton 1 - Burnley 0||Yes|
|Crystal Palace v. West Brom||31%||36%||32%||Crystal Palace 0 - West Brom 2||No (2nd most likely)*|
|Chelsea v. Manchester United||46%||27%||27%||Chelsea 1 - Manchester United 0||Yes|
|Manchester City v. West Ham||56%||29%||14%||Manchester City 2 - West Ham 0||Yes|
|Newcastle v. Tottenham||14%||26%||59%||Newcastle 1 - Tottenham 3||Yes|
|Hull City v. Liverpool||6%||35%||58%|
|Arsenal v. Sunderland||62%||18%||19%||Postponed until May 20||-|