EPL: Week 33 Predictions

Here are my Week 33 predictions.  The big game this weekend is Chelsea v. Manchester United. The model actually has what seems like a reasonable prediction here, with Chelsea a 46% favorite at home, 27% to draw and 27% for Manchester United.

On the other end of the table, all of the relegation teams have a reasonable chance of at least getting a point, while Burnley has the strongest predicted chance of getting the three points at Everton. Everton has come on strong lately, and they’re a 45% favorite, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Burnley got something out of this match at all. This could be a key week in determining the relegation spots, as with all the teams so close even a point could be huge.

GameHome Team Win %Draw %Visiting Team Win %Actual OutcomeCorrect Prediction
Stoke City v. Southampton25%26%49%Stoke City 2 - Southampton 1No (3rd most likely)
Leicester City v. Swansea City12%14%73%Leicester City 2 - Swansea 0 No (3rd most likely)
Everton v. Burnley45%24%30%Everton 1 - Burnley 0Yes
Crystal Palace v. West Brom31%36%32%Crystal Palace 0 - West Brom 2No (2nd most likely)*
Chelsea v. Manchester United46%27%27%Chelsea 1 - Manchester United 0Yes
Manchester City v. West Ham56%29%14%Manchester City 2 - West Ham 0Yes
Newcastle v. Tottenham14%26%59%Newcastle 1 - Tottenham 3Yes
Hull City v. Liverpool6%35%58%
Arsenal v. Sunderland62%18%19%Postponed until May 20 -

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