Predictions of La Liga Winner: Pre-Week 33

I ran the simulations for the run-in for each of the top 3 teams in Spain right now, and Barcelona’s 2 point lead over Real Madrid translates into a 68% chance of finishing the season on top of La Liga. Madrid has a 17% chance of winning the league outright, and an 11% chance of finishing the season with the same number of points as Barcelona. 1

La Liga Week 33

Other interesting stats: Barcelona has about a 33% chance of winning the rest of their games and finishing with the max 93 points, while Madrid only has a 26% chance of winning out and finishing with 91. Atletico Madrid still has about a 3% chance of winning the league

  1. La Liga’s tiebreaker is different than the typical “goal differential”, where they look at results between the tied teams first, and Madrid has a +1 goal differential in the two games

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